Strategy performance review

No fund risks a cent on a trading strategy until it has been measured. So why do you?

Expectancy testing, drawdown simulation, out-of-sample validation. A strategy has to pass all three before anyone puts money behind it. Most retail traders expect a professional's returns without ever running analysis on their trading data — not because they are lazy, but because nobody has ever shown them what it looks like.

How a financial institution decides a strategy is worth money

  • Expectancy, with the range it actually sits in
  • Worst drawdown across thousands of possible orderings
  • Whether the strategy will keep performing, or has just been lucky
  • Whether the edge survives real commission and slippage
  • What the optimal risk per trade is, so the account survives a major drawdown
  • Whether a pattern is real, or noise that will cost you money to follow

How most traders decide

  • A win rate
  • Total profit on the demo
  • A sense that the last few weeks went well

This is not a discipline problem, and it is not because you are not working hard enough. It is because the kind of trading performance review that financial institutions run has simply never been available to retail traders.

What is Moses?

We take your trading journal and run it through the same checks a financial institution runs before approving a strategy, then send back a report telling you whether your edge is real, where it comes from, and what would break it.

Not just a dashboard full of numbers and complicated wording. A written document that reaches a conclusion, in plain English, with every term explained.

Then we go through it together on a call. We walk you through every section, explain what each number means for your trading, and answer whatever you want to ask. You are not left alone with a PDF.

If you do not have a journal yet, we will show you how to build one and coach you through the eight weeks or so it takes to gather enough trades to analyse.

It works for any market and any style — futures, forex, indices, crypto, equities. The analysis runs on your results, not on what you trade. What it needs is a journal with enough trades in it.

One example of what turns up

This is my own backtest, 597 trades across NQ and ES. The system worked, and the obvious next step was to sharpen it: only take the setups with the highest win rate. Each row below shows a rule that looked good on its own.

Stacking filters on a profitable system

NQ and ES, 2020–2026, 597 trades

Rules applied Trades left Win rate Total profit
No filter — take every setup 59744.9%+224R
Only with 15m SMT 4953.1%+35R
…and only on ES 2254.5%+19R
…and only the London session 1369.2%+15R
The win rate climbed from 45% to 69%, but the account gave up 209R of profit to get there. Every filter removed losers — and took winners with them.

Without running the numbers, the win rate column is the only one you would ever see. The strategy looks like it is getting better right up until the account tells you otherwise — and by then it has been months.

What the report answers

Twenty-odd pages, in plain English, with every term explained. These are the questions it is built around.

Is your edge real, or luck?

The record gets resampled thousands of times and split in half by date, to separate a genuine edge from a lucky stretch.

How bad can the drawdown get?

Your trades are reshuffled ten thousand times. Same edge, different luck. Most traders size for the drawdown they have seen, not the one coming.

Would you pass a funded challenge?

Your actual results, run through prop firm rules twenty thousand times, at every position size.

Where does the edge come from?

Session, instrument, setup, timeframe — every split tested for significance, consistency over time, and false positives.

Does news change anything?

Every trade matched against CPI, NFP, FOMC and the rest. With entry times, it narrows to the hour around each release.

What should you stop worrying about?

Usually most of it. The report says plainly which of your rules make no measurable difference at all.

How it works

Steps 1 and 4 apply to everyone. Step 2 or step 3 depends on what you already have.

1

A call, first

We go through your strategy and whatever data you have. You pull your real numbers from your broker or prop dashboard — accounts blown, total lost — and we keep them so we can compare later.

2

If you have 150+ logged trades

We audit the journal, fix what is fixable, and run the full review. We walk through it together on a call rather than emailing a PDF and disappearing.

3

If you don't have a journal

We set up a journal template for your strategy, show you how to backtest properly, and we have weekly calls to track your progress while you build the sample. Twenty trades a week, roughly eight weeks. You get a short progress report each week.

4

You trade it live throughout

Small size, from day one. Backtesting teaches you whether the strategy works. Only live trading teaches you whether you can run it.

Price

First three clients

Full programme at a reduced rate, in exchange for honest feedback on the programme and permission to use your report (anonymised) as a sample. This price is only for the first three people who sign up.

$400$99one-off

Full programme

Consultation, journal template, weekly calls until 150 trades, the full report, and a call to walk through it.

$400one-off

Report only

You already have 150+ usable trades. Journal audit, full review, walkthrough call.

$199one-off

Continuing after your report

Weekly calls, live trade review, and building the sample toward something genuinely reliable. Optional, and only if it is worth it to you.

$199per month

What we are not promising

That you will make money

We have no idea whether you will. Nobody who tells you otherwise is telling you the truth.

That your strategy works

Plenty of strategies do not, and the numbers do not care who built them. If yours is one of those, the report will say so directly — and finding that out in eight weeks instead of three years and four blown accounts is the point.

That the answer will be interesting

Most of the patterns that look meaningful on a chart turn out to be random once they are tested. And where there are not enough trades to give a real answer, the report says exactly that. Hearing that your data cannot prove something yet is frustrating. Acting on an answer we invented to fill the gap would cost you far more.

A shortcut

This needs about an hour a day from you for two months. If you cannot commit to that, this is not going to work and we would rather say so now.

Start with a call

Tell us what you trade and what you have logged so far. If we do not think we can help, we will say so instead of selling you something.

Email us

Or message us on X — usually quicker.